theory | research organizations

au research | dod & usgov

other research | articles & statements

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See also reference page

See also international rivals - terrorists at USAF Counterproliferation Center

See also lessons learned from the war on terrorism

See also terrorist use of the internet at the Cyberspace and Info-Ops Study Center

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• Theory ___[return to top]
  • see psychology of terrorism

  • Terrorism: Concepts, Causes, and Conflict Resolution (local copy, 1.1 Mb PDF), by DTRA and George Mason University -- examines definitions, characteristics, causes, and responses (DOC file, 2.6 Mb)

  • The Dynamic Terrorist Threat - An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, by Cragin and Daly, 2004 RAND book

  • Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism - Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why? (local copy), report by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress
    • includes other research, such as
      • "For example, the terrorist would not necessarily threaten to assassinate a politician in advance, for to do so would make it more difficult to carry out the deed. In its detailed study of 83 people who tried to kill a public official or a celebrity in the United States in the past 50 years, the Secret Service found that not one assassin had made a threat. Imprisoned assassins told the Secret Service that a threat would keep them from succeeding, so why would they threaten?"

  • Socio-Economic Roots of Radicalism? Towards Explaining the Appeal of Islamic Radicals (local copy), SSI, July 2003

  • A Theory of Fundamentalism: an Inquiry into the Origin and Development of the Movement (local copy), SSI, Sep 1995

• Research Organizations ___[return to top]
  • see other research and news below

  • see joint and service battle labs, listed by the Air War College Gateway

  • see national and service research labs, listed by the USAF Counterproliferation Center

  • START - National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, a Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland

  • Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point

  • RAND
    • Search RAND site - turns up more terrorism research than is listed by RAND on its terrorism and security page
    • U.S. Strategy in the Muslim World After 9/11, 2004 RAND research brief
    • The Muslim World after 9/11, 2004 RAND report

  • Counterterrorism and Incident Response, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) - check under the Programs menu

• Air University Research ___[return to top]
  • Anatomy of Cyberterrorism: Is America Vulnerable?, AWC paper, 2003
  • Computer Network Defense: DoD and the National Response, AWC paper, 2003
  • C-17A: Operation Enduring Freedom Employment/Deployment - Lessons Learned, AWC paper, 2003
  • Bytes: Weapons of Mass Disruption, AWC paper, 2002
  • US National Security Strategy in Response to 11 September 2001, AWC paper, 2002
  • Democratization and Islamization in Egypt: Counterbalancing Forces for Autocracy, AWC paper, 1998
  • Islam: Double-Edged Sword of Political Instability, AWC paper, 1997
  • The Islamist Challenge in the Middle East and North Africa, AWC paper, 1996
  • Security and Peace in the Middle East: Experiments with Democracy in an Islamic World, Maxwell Paper No. 4, 1996

  • Malignants in the Body Politic: Redefining War through Metaphor, SAAS paper, 2004
  • Choosing a Moral Framework for the War on Terror, SAAS paper, 2002
  • Complex Targeting: A Complexity-Based Theory of Targeting and Its Application to Radical Islamic Terrorism, SAAS paper, 2002
  • The New Terrorism: the Nature of the War on Terrorism, SAAS paper, 2002

  • The Interagency Process and America's Second Front in the Global War on Terrorism, ACSC paper, 2003
  • America's Credibility at Stake: Arab Perceptions of US Foreign Policy, ACSC paper, 2002
  • America's Food - Does Anthrax Pose a Threat?, ACSC paper, 2002
  • The Central Asian Republics after September 11, 2001 - How Should the US Alter Its Engagement Strategy?, ACSC paper, 2002
  • The Rise of Islamic Fundamentalism in Uzbekistan, ACSC paper, 2002
  • Christian Realism's Response to International Terrorism, ACSC paper, 2002
  • Globalization and Asymmetric Warfare, ACSC paper, 2002
  • Identifying Threats: Improving Intelligence and Counterintelligence Support to Force Protection, ACSC paper, 2002
  • Aum Shinrikyo and Weapons of Mass Destruction - a Case Study, ACSC paper, 2000
  • Future Roles of Air and Space Power in Combatting Terrorism, ACSC paper, 1997
  • Terrorist Vulnerability: Failure of Policy?, ACSC paper, 1997
  • Terrorism and US Policy: Problems in Definition and Response, ACSC paper, 1997

  • Legitimate Use of Military Force Against State-Sponsored International Terrorism, by Erickson, Airpower Research Institute, 1989 - (1.7 Mb)
    • Dutch political scientist Alex P. Schmid, in Political Terrorism, reviewed more than 140 definitions of terrorism written between 1936 and 1981. From these he identified 22 elements and 20 purposes or functions of terrorism.
      The five most frequently identified elements were:
      • violence or force,
      • political purpose,
      • terror or fear,
      • threat, and
      • anticipated psychological effects or reactions by third parties.
      The five most frequently identified purposes or functions were to:
      • terrorize or put the public in fear,
      • provoke indiscriminate repression or countermeasures by established authorities,
      • mobilize the forces of terrorism or immobilize the forces of the established authorities,
      • affect public opinion in a positive or negative way, and
      • seize political power or overthrow regimes.

• Other DoD and USGov Research and Papers ___[return to top]
  • see GAO reports on terrorism
  • see CRS reports on terrorism
  • see RAND reports on terrorism

  • see also Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point
    • "Al-Qa`ida's Spymaster Analyzes U.S. Intelligence, by Fishman, Nov 2006 report from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
    • Jihadi After Action Report: Syria, by Ulph, 2006 report from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
    • Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting Al-Qa'ida's Organizational Vulnerabilities, 2006 report from the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point - includes full text in Arabic and English translation of declassified captured documents used to develop the report - items such as al-Qaida's by-laws
    • Stealing Al-Qa’ida’s Playbook (local copy), by Brachman and McCants, Combating Terrorism Center, West Point, Feb 2006

  • START - National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, a Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland

  • The New Totalitarians: Social Identities and Radical Islamist Political Grand Strategy (local copy), by MacDonald, Jan 2007, Strategic Studies Institute

  • Marketing Terror: Effects of Anti-Messaging on GSPC Recruitment, by Fahoum and Width, in Strategic Insights, Naval Postgraduate School, Nov 2006 (local copy of PDF)

  • Terrorism Awareness and Education as a Prevention Strategy for First Responders (local copy), by Welch, Naval Postgraduate School, Mar 2006

  • Al Qaeda as Insurgency (local copy), by Morris, in Joint Force Quarterly, Oct 2005

  • Crimes Committed by Terrorist Groups: Theory, Research and Prevention (local copy), by Hamm, project funded by DoJ, Sep 2005

  • Maritime Terrorism in Southeast Asia: the Abu Sayyaf Threat, by Banlaoi, in Naval War College Review, Autumn 2005

  • Global War on Terrorism Occasional Papers, Combat Studies Institute (CSI)

  • Psychological Operations and Counterterrorism (local copy), by Post, in Joint Force Quarterly, issue 37, 2nd Quarter, 2005

  • International Special Events (local copy), by McGee, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Jan 2006 - includes list of FBI resources available to help with security

  • Coordinated Terrorist Attacks: Implications for Local Responders (local copy), by Houghton and Schachter, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, May 2005

  • Exploiting Weakness in the Far Enemy Ideology (local copy), by Johnson, in Strategic Insights, June 2005

  • Storytelling and Terrorism: Towards a Comprehensive 'Counter-Narrative Strategy' by Casebeer and Russell, in Strategic Insights, Mar 2005 (local copy)

  • Sandia National Labs
    • An Agent-Based Model Component to a Framework for the Analysis of Terrorist-Group Dynamics (local copy), Backus and Glass, Sandia Labs, Feb 2006

    • War of the Words (local copy), by Johnson, page 3 of News & Views, Sandia Labs, Jan 2005
      • Four Principles for Success in the War of Ideas
        • Be clear about whom you are speaking and avoid viewing populations monolithically
        • Be precise in your terms and avoid exaggeration
        • Seek to understand alternative viewpoints and show respect for them
        • Learn your own blind spots

    • Seldon - Probing Terrorist Mitigation Strategies through Computational Social Simulations, Sandia Labs - includes presentations, papers, and links relating to issue below
      Seldon is a transdisciplinary effort aimed at better understanding the factors and processes that lead to the emergence and persistence of terrorist organizations through Computational Social Simulation (CSS), an emerging field that combines agent-based models with dynamic social networks. How and where can we best intervene in the terrorist pipeline so these groups do not achieve the size and structure necessary to support violent behavior?

      Social scientists have long recognized the critical interdependence of individuals on society and vice versa, but up to now there has not been a computational tool for analyzing such non-linear interactions in such complex social systems. This effort provides a virtual environment where a social scientist or analyst can manipulate variables and test interventions that would otherwise be impossible to explore.

    • Death and Life in the Power of Language: How Words Might Reveal Developing Threats (local copy), by Chew, page 5 of News & Views, Sandia Labs, Jan 2005 - using linguistic analysis, such as Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA)

    • Terrorist Organizations and Criminal Street Gangs: an argument for an analogy (local copy), Sandia report, 21 Nov 2002

  • Los Alamos National Lab
    • Understanding Why - Dissecting radical Islamic terrorism with agent-based simulation (local copy), by MacKerrow, in Los Alamos Science, No. 28 2003

  • Counter-Terrorism and the Use of Force in International Law (local copy), by Schmitt, George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies

  • Political Exclusion and Violence: the Islamist Movement in Egypt (local copy), by Gallaher, Sep 2004 NPS thesis

  • An Alternate Military Strategy for the War on Terrorism (local copy), by Canonico, Dec 2004 NPS thesis

  • Applying Risk-based Decision-making Methods/Tools to U.S. Navy Antiterrorism Capabilities (local copy), by Mitchell and Decker, at Homeland Security Symposium and Exposition, 27 May 2004

  • Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries (local copy), by Thomas and Casebeer, INSS Occasional Paper 52, Mar 2004

  • U.S. Strategy in the Muslim World After 9/11, 2004 RAND research brief for Project Air Force
  • The Muslim World after 9/11, 2004 RAND report for Project Air Force
  • Out of the Ordinary - Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior, 2004 RAND report

  • Apocalyptic Terrorism: The Case for Preventive Action (local copy), by McMillan, Strategic Forum 212, Nov 2004

  • Managing Joint Terrorism Task Force Resources (local copy), by Casey, in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, November 2004

  • Terrorism: Concepts, Causes, and Conflict Resolution (local copy, 1.1 Mb PDF), by DTRA and George Mason University -- examines definitions, characteristics, causes, and responses (DOC file, 2.6 Mb)

  • Combating Terrorism in a Globalized World (local copy), report by National War College task force, 2002

  • DoD Biometrics Fusion Center

  • Countering Transnational Terrorism in Southeast Asia with Respect to Terrorism in Indonesia and the Philippines (local copy), by Chaerudin, NPS thesis, Dec 2003

  • Confronting Cyberterrorism with Cyber Deception (local copy), by Tan, NPS thesis, Dec 2003
  • Cyberterror: Prospects and Implications (local copy), White Paper, Center for the Study of Terrorism and Irregular Warfare, NPS, Oct 1999
  • Major Cyberspace Vulnerabilities Will Be Used against Us (local copy), Congressional testimony of Richard A. Clarke, 8 Apr 2003 - includes emphasis of key points of the National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace

  • Observing al Qaeda through the Lens of Complexity Theory: Recommendations for the National Strategy to Defeat Terrorism (local copy), by Beech, Army War College, July 2004

  • Al-Qaeda: Center of Gravity and Decisive Points (local copy) by Schweitzer, Army War College paper, 2003

  • Counterterrorism: Policy of Preemptive Action (local copy) by Westphal, Army War College paper, 2003

  • Preventing Terrorism Through Nation-Building: A Viable Way? (local copy) by Comfort, Army War College paper, 2003

  • The Transformation of Counter Terrorism (local copy) by Golding, Army War College paper, 2002

  • Defeating Terrorism: Strategic Issue Analyses, Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)
    • Strategy Conference titled America's Irregular Enemies: Securing Interests in an Era of Persistent Conflict
      • A Dozen Osamas: Islamist Threats and the Future of Counterinsurgency (local copy), by Zuhur, SSI, April 2005
      • The Future of Jemaah Islamiyah & the Radical Islamist Challenge in Southeast Asia (local copy), slides by Abuza, SSI, April 2005
      • The Bottom Line: No Strategy Can Defeat an Enemy You Refuse to Understand (local copy), by Sheuer, SSI, April 2005
      • Non-Military Capabilities: Decisive and Deficient (local copy), slides by Metz, SSI, April 2005
      • America's Irregular Enemies (local copy), slides by Hammes, SSI, April 2005 - includes comment "drop network centric fantasy"
      • Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya, Vietnam, and Iraq (local copy), slides by Nagl, SSI, April 2005
      • 4GW and OODA Loop Implications of the Iraqi Insurgency (local copy), slides by Wilcox, SSI, April 2005
    • Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror (local copy), by Zuhur, SSI, March 2005
    • Islamic Rulings on Warfare (local copy), by Aboul-Enein and Zuhur SSI, Oct 2004
    • Female Suicide Bombers (local copy), by Zedalis, SSI, June 2004
    • Bounding the Global War on Terrorism (local copy), by Record, SSI, Dec 2003
    • Rethinking Asymmetric Threats (local copy), by Blank, SSI, Sep 2003
    • Waging ancient war : limits on preemptive force (local copy), by Worley, SSI, Feb 2003
    • Dragon on Terrorism: Assessing China's Tactical Gains and Strategic Losses Post-September 11 (local copy), by Malik, SSI, Oct 2002
    • Facing the Hydra: Maintaining Strategic Balance While Pursuing a Global War against Terrorism (local copy), by Crane, SSI, May 2002

  • Library of Congress links for Terrorism

  • Anti-Terrorist Operations and Homeland Defense , 2003 conference, Joint Services Conference on Professional Ethics (JSCOPE)
    • including presentations on terrorist vs POW, security and civil liberties, rules of engagement, moral restraint, and more
    • A Consequentialist Argument against Torture Interrogation of Terrorists (local copy), by Arrigo, 2003, Joint Services Conference on Professional Ethics (JSCOPE)

  • Internet Posting of Chemical "Worst Case" Scenarios: a Roadmap for Terrorists (local copy), Congressional discussion of the balance between the public's need-to-know and the danger of aiding the terrorists

  • Al Qaeda and the Internet: The Danger of “Cyberplanning,” by Thomas, in Parameters (local copy)

  • Countering Terrorism: Integration of Practice and Theory (local copy), report of Feb 2002 FBI conference
    • including references on
      • scenarios of possible terrorism
      • psychology of deception
      • decision trees
      • hate crime training program
      • psychology of bias

  • International Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century (local copy), by Dr. Frank Goldstein

• Other Research & News ___[return to top]
  • START - National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, a Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security based at the University of Maryland

  • The Terrorism Research Center (TRC)
  • International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT)
  • CDI Terrorism Project
  • ERRI Counter-Terrorism Archive

  • Institute for Security Technology Studies (ISTS) at Dartmouth College

  • Trends in the Incidence of International Terror Attacks on Americans After the Cold War, by Knight and Murphy, 26 Jun 2003, Project on Defense Alternatives

  • Terrorism Law & Policy, U. of Pitt. Law School

  • Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence

  • South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP)

  • Jihad and Terrorism Studies Project, Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) - "established ... to monitor militant-Islamic groups that educate and preach Jihad and martyrdom in mosques, school systems, and in the media. This project will also focus on individuals and radical Islamist organizations, sermons and religious rulings (fatwas) and reactions to terrorist attacks both in the U.S. and abroad. "

• Articles and Statements ___[return to top]
  • Fighting Terrorism and Insurgency: Shaping the Information Environment (local copy), by Emery et al, in Military Review, Jan-Feb 2005

  • Defending Against Cybercrime and Terrorism: A New Role for Universities (local copy), by Aeilts, in FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, Jan 2005

  • Regional Demographics and the War on Terrorism, RAND reprint of Feb 2003 RUSI Journal article

  • In Colombia - A Terrorist Sanctuary? (local copy), by Demarest, in Military Review, Mar-Apr 2002

  • Combating Terrorism (local copy), by Smith, in Military Review, Jan-Feb 2002

  • Testimony on threats to homeland security, by Newt Gingrich, 9 Sep 2003

  • The First Global War of the Information Age (local copy), speech by General Richard B. Myers - "there are four key factors that separate al Qaida from the terrorists of yesterday"

  • Terrorist Groups Increasingly Linked to Drugs, Officials Say (local copy), 13 Mar 2002 State Department experts testify before Senate subcommittee

  • Targeting Terrorists - Can GIS Lead the Attack?, by Way, for GEOplace.com - discusses a project that identifies possible remote havens for terrorist and other illicit activity, using GIS modeling of terrain data, climate, population, governments, etc.

  • Terrorism Expert Sounds Battle Cry (local copy), DoD news item, 12 Sep 1997
    • Terrorists in the years ahead will become less politically motivated and more attuned to religious, fanatical zealotry. Less concerned than ever about international repercussions, they will seek ways to reap mass casualties on an unprepared public. The United States will most often be their target.
    • "In contrast to their politically motivated counterparts, terrorist groups or cults motivated by religious ideology exhibit few self-imposed restraints," Probst said. "They actively seek to maximize the carnage, believing that only by annihilating their enemy they may fulfill the dictates of their guru or god."
    • ... DoD should take several new approaches to countering terrorism, Probst said. [These include red-teaming, an anti-terrorism institute, and special interagency anti-terrorism teams, operating worldwide.]

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